With six weeks to go until Election Day, and early voting already underway in a handful of states, the conventional wisdom is that Republicans may be in for some setbacks in .
As it defends its fragile House and Senate majorities, the GOP is fighting political history, which has traditionally seen the president’s party lose congressional seats during the midterms. It’s also battling high costs at the grocery stores and gas pumps tied to what polls show is an unpopular war with Iran, as well as President ‘s underwater approval ratings.
But Democrats are saddled with their own issues, from an ideological civil war between the party’s left wing and the establishment that has handed Republicans plenty of political ammunition, to a brand image that’s nothing to brag about. Add to that the Democrats’ major disadvantage as the GOP floods the airwaves with attack ads.
Here are six forces that will likely determine whether Republicans can turn back a possible blue wave and hold power in Congress.
Six weeks until Election Day, and just as the voting begins, fuel prices keep rising, with the national average for gas nearly $4.50 per gallon and diesel topping $6.50 per gallon, according to AAA.
Public opinion polls point to the economy, including the cost of living, as the top issue for voters in this year’s midterms. That means that the issue that boosted Trump and Republicans to sweeping victories in 2024 is a major liability in 2026. And the rising prices in recent weeks, fueled by renewed fighting in the war with Iran and Ukraine and attacks on Russia’s diesel industry, are doing the GOP no favors.
“Gas prices were much higher under Biden than under “TRUMP.” So were almost all other prices,” the president argued Monday in a social media post, as he referred to former President .
While Trump and Republican leaders point fingers at Biden, polls indicate voters increasingly place the blame for ongoing economic and inflation pressures on the current administration.
Democrats last week heavily criticized Trump and Republicans after the president argued that fuel costs were “a very inexpensive price to pay for what weve done,” as he pointed to the attacks on Iran’s nuclear facilities.
Meanwhile, the latest Fox News poll indicated that by a wide margin, the Democrats are considered the party that would better handle inflation.
But when asked about the overall economy, recent national surveys from Reuters/Ipsos and NBC News had the GOP and Democrats all knotted up on which party would better handle the issue.
“My listeners are looking for prices to come down across the board,” New Hampshire-based center-right talk radio host Jack Heath told Fox News Digital.
“People elected President Trump to lower prices and improve their situation and people are looking for that improvement,” Heath, host of “Good Morning NH,” emphasized. “They’re looking for Trump to deliver on his promises.”
“I’m asking you to just pretend I’m on the ballot just one more time,” the president said last week during a campaign stop in battleground North Carolina.
It’s a line Trump repeatedly used earlier this month, at the GOP’s first-ever midterm convention.
Facing what polls indicate is an enthusiasm gap with Democrats, the president and Republican leaders are hoping to energize the MAGA base, which doesn’t always vote when Trump isn’t on the ballot. While the president’s approval rating in the Fox News poll stands at 39% among all voters, it remains at a sky-high 98% among self-described MAGA Republicans.
But some longtime Trump allies are starting to break with the president as they face challenging re-elections.
GOP Rep. Maria Salazar
