Eight weeks from today, millions of Americans will choose their next congressperson. Poll after poll tells us that the state of the economy will shape their choice: its the top issue for voters by a wide margin and most Americans are in a sour mood about it.
Thats not the end of the story.
Weve learned from previous elections that voters consider a wide range of issues when they vote. The “economy” has different meanings to voters. Optimism doesnt win over voters on pocketbook issues. And this year, while voters arent happy with President Donald Trumps economy, that hasn’t yet made them enthusiastic about the Democratic alternative.
These are the four rules to think about as we inch closer to the midterms.
Meantime, Democrats inch closer to victory as the Power Rankings takes a fresh look at congressional races in Missouri and Ohio.
The importance of the economy to elections has been a golden rule since the early ’90s, when Democratic strategist James Carville famously cited “the economy, stupid” as the most important focus for a campaign.
Did you know it was only one of three orders he gave to candidates that cycle?
The economy has been a top-three issue throughout the Trump era, including the last two midterm elections, where it was the most important issue for 47% of voters (2022) and 18% of voters (2018).
If that 2018 figure feels low, its because healthcare (26%) and immigration (23%) finished ahead. That year, Republicans lost 42 seats.
No wonder another of Carvilles three rules for candidates was “dont forget health care.” (The third was “change vs more of the same.”)
The state of the economy bleeds into other major concerns, including healthcare. But even a strong economy wasnt enough to get the GOP out of that election unscathed. And healthcare looms as another important issue this year: its ranked close behind the economy in most surveys this year.
When pollsters ask about voters views on the economy, they usually ask how important “the economy” or “the state of the economy” is, or whether theyre satisfied with Trumps performance on that issue.
In some important ways, Trump has a strong economic record. Just last week, the U.S. added 162,000 jobs, about triple what economists had expected. The unemployment rate was steady at 4.1%. The stock market also continues to grow, even as Iran and tariffs drive volatility.
These have helped keep Trumps overall economic approval rating in the low-to-mid 30s in multiple polls this summer.
When pollsters ask only about Americans personal economic situation, things look tougher.
TRUMP’S APPROVAL RATING PLUMMETS TO NEW LOW AHEAD OF CRITICAL MIDTERMS: ‘MORE WORK TO DO’
In a Reuters/Ipsos poll released last week, 32% of voters said they approved of Trump on the economy. But only a quarter approved of his performance on cost of living and 24% approved of him on inflation and prices.
The costs of gas, food and other basic goods are the major factors driving this discrepancy. If Democrats deliver a strong result in November, it will come down to a presidential approval rating in the mid-20s
